SNSN schreef op 5 februari 2016 17:31:
Some (systemic) "markets rising" could be expected on (systemic) real QE-expansions (not just depo-rates) from ECB (March). That would certainly push Euro further down. So far, ECB just can't implement extra QE at already "too weak" Euro, as "too strong" dollar would hit real US-economy, rising the prob for new recession in US. Actually, recent rising Euro ("hard work" for financials) makes it a bit more probable (realistic) for ECB to act, pushing extra QE a bit further.... However, the only rates at/above ~1,14 would make it really comfortable (for both CBs) to act absolutely differently, but consistently .... "as planned".
Otherwise, (at strong dollars) possible Super Mario's actions are very limited.... by just "unlimited promises".... (resulting in markets attempting restore "natural equilibrium" with real economy...., looking for a better place somewhere further to the south, i.e. towards ~375-300 for 'aex').
That's why almost "randomly revised" recent (Nov, Dec) figures from the US labor market and some inconsistences in partial & cumulative numbers generate just uncertainties (on possible Fed actions), increasing just FX volatility.... (resulting in a lower prob for extra QE-expansions from ECB at "stronger dollars").
So, take care.... , and don't forget to look at fx-rates