Frunk schreef op 2 december 2011 20:34:
EMU Break-up, Pay Now, Pay LaterING heeft becijferd dat het uiteenvallen van de eurozone uitermate kostbaar is en veel duurder dan wanneer de monetaire unie blijft bestaan.
In our complete EMU break up scenario, the cumulative loss of output in the Eurozone in the first two years is over 12%. This is substantially greater than the losses that followed the demise of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.With their new currencies falling by 50% or more, the peripheral economies such as Spain and Portugal would see their inflation rates soar towards double-digits. Meanwhile, Germany and other core countries would suffer a deflationary shock. Indeed, with the US dollar surging on safe-haven flows to the equivalent of 0.85 EUR/USD, the US also suffers a bout of deflation.Events of the past year have proved beyond doubt that the Eurozone is far from the textbook ‘optimal currency area’. But this is an omelette that cannot be readily unscrambled.Hier is het volledige rapport:
content1b.omroep.nl/ed77ad9b4f525eeee...In Nieuwsuur om 22:00 uur op NL2 een gesprek met de hoofd-econoom van ING, Mark Cliffe.