ouwebeursrot schreef:
[quote=M-P]
Waar gaat WS heen vanavond?
Ik denk een dichtbij huis avondje na de stijgingen. Even consolideren (lang niet meer gezien).
[/quote]
Denk dat de markt z'n adem inhoudt voor de Lehman CDS settlement vandaag:
US TECHS: S&P Outlook; Lehman Settlement Eyed, Libor Tumbles [JDCMTTB]
[09:23 US TECHS: S&P Outlook; Lehman Settlement Eyed, Libor Tumbles] Boston,
October 21. With the VIX still in the 50s, market participants fully understand
that there is no all-clear in the risk markets. Many eyes will be on the payout
of Lehman CDS contracts, which settle today. Friday Oct 10 revealed sellers of
protection will have to pay 91.375 cents on the dollar but still no one knows how
much in total has to be paid out. Estimates of payout amounts vary between $6 bln
to $370 bln though analysts are beginning to comment that the larger numbers are
unlikely, that the payments were marked to market, thus will not lead to further
market turmoil and any losses will not be known until the relevant quarterly
figures are released. On the soothing side, Libor plummeted by over 22 bps to
3.834% (3-months) in the BBA fixings.
As we have stated numerous times the equity complex has seen, and could
continue to see, rolling capitulations - major market bottoms are a process, not
an event. For SPZ, fear of 1000 has led to an imminent test of 950/960 and with
the aforementioned elevated VIX, lower support levels are likely to be tested in
the 940s and 920s. Resistance is at 975, 985 and 990.