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Hang Seng naar 40.000

1. [verwijderd] 24 september 2007 18:26

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   Normaal zal de HSI eventjes pauzeren bij de 30.000 welke dit jaar nog zal bereikt worden, om daarna naar de 40.000 te vliegen.
   
   tinyurl.com/278ulq
   
   Vanaf 30.000 zal de waardering niet met een k/w-theorie verdedigd kunnen worden.
   
   De rally naar 40.000 is puur gebaseerd op euforie en angst er niet in te zitten.
   
   Jarenlange ontkenning en doomen van het Chinese verhaal is verkeerd gebleken, zij die jarenlang niet in China geloofden, zijn nu verplicht tegen elke prijs in te stappen, want wie het nu al duur vindt, zal enkel steeds duurder wordende Chinese aandelen zien.
   
   tinyurl.com/32faez
   
   The Artist
   
   koers vandaag 26,495
2. [verwijderd] 24 september 2007 18:38

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   Stort toch een keer effe naar beneden, als ik zo naar die piek kijk!!
3. [verwijderd] 24 september 2007 18:39

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   quote:

   The Artist schreef:

   zij die jarenlang niet in China geloofden, zijn nu verplicht tegen elke prijs in te stappen
   
   The Artist
   
   koers vandaag 26,495
   

   Tafkapje,je lijkt af en toe wel een anabole analist.
   Have a break...
   
   MVG
   
   Rigsby
4. [verwijderd] 25 september 2007 02:26

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   www.usmarkets.nl/Artikelen/Columns/Go...
5. [verwijderd] 27 september 2007 00:20

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   quote:

   Goodnight Vienna schreef:

   [quote=The Artist]
   zij die jarenlang niet in China geloofden, zijn nu verplicht tegen elke prijs in te stappen
   
   The Artist
   
   koers vandaag 26,495
   [/quote]
   
   Tafkapje,je lijkt af en toe wel een anabole analist.
   Have a break...
   
   MVG
   
   Rigsby
   

   TINA
   
   Hong Kong's Hang Seng index may rise to 35,000 points next year - UBS
   
   
   HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - The Hong Kong stock market's benchmark Hang Seng index is expected to rise to at least 28,000 points and may even hit 35,000 next year, UBS said.
   
   UBS said in a report that 39 of the 40 Hang Seng Index component stocks have announced their latest results and most have surprised on the upside.
   
   "We upgrade our 2007 earnings estimates for Chinese financial companies we cover, and this was almost entirely due to higher expectations of stock market-related income," UBS said.
   
   UBS said these included major Hang Seng index component stocks such as Hang Seng Bank, Bank of Communications, China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance following their latest results announcements.
   
   UBS has forecast pre-exceptional EPS growth of 27.9 pct on the Hang Seng index this year due to the significant upgrade in its 2007 earnings estimates for Chinese financial companies, with 2008 seen growing 12.8 pct.
   
   "Our earnings yield gap-derived blue-sky 2008 Hang Seng index fair value estimate would be 35,000 or 24 times 2008 pre-exceptional EPS, which we believe is a peak-of -the-bull-market type valuation," UBS said, adding that its base case 2008 Hang Seng index fair value estimate is 28,000.
   
   UBS noted that the main risk to Hong Kong index earnings are China-related rather than that related to the US subprime crisis.
   
   The seven H-shares and eight red chips in the Hang Seng index universe of 40 component stocks account for 48.8 pct of the index weighting and 42.3 pct of 2007 index pre-exceptional EPS.
   
   The bank added that the US subprime fallout will not have much impact on Hong Kong corporate earnings as HSBC, arguably the only index heavyweight with significant exposure to US consumer lending, has already ring-fenced the exposure and made significant provisions.
   
   UBS also commented on the Chinese government's new individual capital scheme as it believes that the scheme allowing mainlanders to buy Hong Kong-listed equities is likely to bring an influx of liquidity into Hong Kong.
   
   roby.lau@xfn.com
   
   
6. [verwijderd] 29 september 2007 19:47

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   Chinese economy full steam ahead
   
   September 19, 2007
   
   
   China has registered a solid growth track since 2003, and its economy has expanded quickly and in a stable manner, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said yesterday.
   
   Living standards have also improved considerably, as income levels have steadily increased since the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China convened in 2002, according to the NBS.
   
   The economy expanded by more than 10 percent in each of the last four years, at an average of 10.4 percent. That is more than double the average growth rate of the world economy during the same period, and is higher than any period in China since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.
   
   The economy remained stable as it steamed ahead. In the last four years, the growth rate never fluctuated by more than 1.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, consumer prices have also remained stable at about 2.1 percent per year.
   
   China's overall economic volume was the world's fourth largest in 2005. It was the sixth largest in 2002. The gap between China and the US, Japan and Germany - the top three world economies - has also narrowed in terms of gross domestic product (GDP).
   
   As its economy has grown, China now contributes more than 5.5 percent of the world's GDP, up from 4.4 percent in 2002.
   
   China's booming economy also saw its per capita income cross the threshold of $2,000 for the first time in 2006. According to World Bank standards, China should no longer be considered a low-income nation, as its per capita income now resembles that of a middle-income country.
   
   While enjoying such rapid and stable economic growth, China has restructured its economy to increase the weight of its service sector in poorer western regions, the NBS said.
   
   By 2006, the service industry accounted for 40.1 percent of the economy, as retail sales increased by an average of 12.2 percent each year in the four years.
   
   Rural development
   
   China has found it easier to develop its rural regions due to the growth of fixed-assets investment. These investments often reflect the potential for development in a region, and have increased faster in the middle, western and northeast regions. In 2006, for example, fixed-assets investment in the middle provinces accounted for 19.3 percent of the national total, 1.6 percentage points higher than in 2002.
   
   This indicates that those regions that are lagging behind economically are gaining greater potential for future development.
   
   Overall national fixed-assets investment reached 32.5 trillion yuan between 2003 and 2006, more than during the period between 1981 and 2002. Fixed-assets investment grew at an average rate of 26.6 percent over the last four years, 6.2 percentage points higher than the period between 1981 and 2002.
   
   China has also seen its urban population grow steadily in the past four years as its rural population has decreased, which helps balance national development, the NBS said.
   
   The bureau predicted that as the State puts in more resources to build a new countryside and further increases its subsidies to farmers, the income of farmers will continue to grow, which will further promote the balanced development of urban and rural areas.
   
   In 2006, rural residents saw their incomes grow by 7.4 percent to an average of 3,587 yuan. Their income increased by more than 6 percent for three consecutive years, which was rare in the past, the NBS said.
   
   The average income of urban residents was 11,759 yuan in 2006, up 10.4 percent from 2005. It was the fourth consecutive year that urban income increased by more than 7 percent.
   
   Booming coffers
   
   Chinese enterprises have registered impressive profit records, bolstering the national economic growth.
   
   Corporate profits as a whole grew at an average of more than 20 percent each year in the past four years.
   
   Meanwhile, the national coffers have reaped more revenue. They reached 3.87 trillion yuan in 2006, which is more than double the total in 2002. It represents an average annual growth of 19.6 percent.
   
   Increased fiscal revenue has also made it possible to make more payment transfers to the economically backward regions, the NBS said.
   
   The national drive to conserve energy and reduce emissions has also progressed over the past four years. While the energy consumption per unit of GDP increased for three consecutive years by 2005, the index finally decreased in 2006. This has been a hard-won result, the NBS said.
   
   The growth of major polluting emissions, meanwhile, has been slowing, the NBS said, indicating strengthened policy enforcement.
   
   China has also built up its infrastructure and has enhanced its industrial equipment to back up the development of core industries, such as energy production, the NBS said.
   
   In 2006, the NBS said, China produced energy in amounts equivalent to 2.2 billion tons of coal, up by 53.7 percent from 2002.
   
   China also saw rapid progress in trade. Its trade volume reached $1.76 trillion in 2006, the third largest in the world. In 2002, it was the sixth largest.
   
   China's income from international tourism has also grown rapidly, the NBS said.
   
   In 2006, there were 35.6 percent more tourists in China than in 2002. The country recorded $33.9 billion in revenue from international tourism, 66.5 percent more than in 2002.
   
   Source:China Daily
   
   
7. [verwijderd] 2 oktober 2007 04:31

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   Als ze in Hong Kong zo blijven gas geven, dan zijn we eind deze week al aan de 40.000 punten.
   
   TINA
   
8. [verwijderd] 2 oktober 2007 08:33

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   Is dit wel economische verantwoord
   
   Ik personelijk zit er niet mee
   Mijn kapitaal groeit wel door,Maar als het mis gaat is de klap zo hard
   
   Vriendelijke groet,
   
   Ps ik zit wel in een clicker fonds (beschermt)
   
   Vriendelijke groet,
   
   

   quote:

   The Artist schreef:

   Als ze in Hong Kong zo blijven gas geven, dan zijn we eind deze week al aan de 40.000 punten.
   
   TINA
   
   

9. [verwijderd] 2 oktober 2007 20:57

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   op de beurs lijkt mij niets verantwoord.
   
   Zuiver winstbejag zonder dat men daarover de vraag stelt => hoe is mijn rendement tot stand gebracht?
10. [verwijderd] 2 oktober 2007 22:16

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    Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index Surges: World's Biggest Mover
    
    By Darren Boey
    
    Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed above 28,000 for the first time, on speculation China's $200 billion investment fund will target Chinese shares listed in the city. China Mobile Ltd. paced the gain.
    
    ``There's no doubt there will be additional liquidity coming into the Hong Kong market,'' said Pauline Dan, who helps manage $2.5 billion at Manulife Asset Management in Hong Kong. China Investment Corp., the country's sovereign wealth fund, began operations on Sept. 29, the latest government effort to funnel excess funds out of the mainland's capital markets.
    
    Bank of China Ltd. led lenders higher after Citigroup Inc. forecast improved earnings as credit market losses abate. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. climbed on speculation Chinese demand will extend beyond equities into Hong Kong real estate.
    
    The Hang Seng added 1,057.28, or 3.9 percent, to close at 28,199.75 in Hong Kong, the biggest fluctuation among equity markets included in global benchmarks. The measure has jumped 38 percent since the start of trading on Aug. 20, when China said it will allow some citizens to invest directly in Hong Kong's stocks. The value of the city's equities surged $685 billion in that time, about the same as the gross domestic product of the Netherlands.
    
    The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which measures 43 so- called H shares of Chinese companies, jumped 5.6 percent to 17,973.87. October futures on the main Hang Seng benchmark climbed 3.8 percent to 28,215.
    
    China Mobile Surges
    
    China Mobile, the world's largest wireless company by users, rose HK$8.10, or 6.4 percent, to HK$135.40, taking its gain in the past month to 28 percent.
    
    China Life Insurance Co., the country's biggest insurer, jumped HK$3.75, or 8.4 percent, to HK$48.40. It has risen 29 percent in the past month. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the world's biggest bank by market value, gained 25 cents, or 4.6 percent, to HK$5.70.
    
    ``Hong Kong will be a good starting point'' for China's investment fund, said Bob Kagotani, a sales trader at Daiwa Securities SMBC Hong Kong Ltd. ``It's $200 billion and that's a pretty big amount.''
    
    China Telecom Corp., the nation's biggest fixed-line telephone operator, climbed 64 cents, or 11 percent, to HK$6.50. The stock has surged 27 percent since Sept. 26, when the National Audit Office said auditors will start reviewing phone operators this month, spurring speculation China's telecommunications industry will be overhauled.
    
    Bank of China Ltd. climbed 22 cents, or 5.3 percent, to HK$4.38. The lender, China's second biggest, in August said it had almost $9.7 billion of securities backed by U.S. subprime loans, the most of any Asian company at the time.
    
    `Normal Earnings Environment'
    
    HSBC Holdings Plc, which controls two of Hong Kong's biggest lenders, added HK$1.80, or 1.3 percent, to HK$144. The London- based bank, among the first to disclose soured U.S. home loans seven months ago, said Sept. 21 it will shut its Decision One subprime mortgage unit.
    
    Citigroup Chief Executive Charles Prince said the bank, the biggest in the U.S., expects to return to ``a normal earnings environment'' in the fourth quarter after posting a 60 percent slide in third-quarter profit. The decline was caused by credit and trading losses on loans and mortgage-backed securities.
    
    Separately, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a speech in London that the credit slump is ``possibly'' over. The Fed, under Greenspan's successor Ben S. Bernanke, cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Sept. 18 to boost an economy where home prices last month plunged by the most since 1970.
    
    Henderson Land Suspension
    
    Sun Hung Kai Properties, Hong Kong's largest developer by market value, gained HK$8.80, or 6.7 percent, to HK$139.80. Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd., the city's No. 2 developer, added HK$6.10, or 4.8 percent, to HK$134.30.
    
    ``Hong Kong real-estate sales have been pretty good so far'' and that will boost developers, said Daiwa's Kagotani.
    
    More buyers from China are expected to invest in Hong Kong's property market because of interest-rate increases on the mainland, the Hong Kong Economic Journal said, citing Barbara Ho, New World Development Co.'s director of sales and marketing.
    
    Hong Kong developers sold 356 new residential units over the three-day weekend, of which about 46 percent, or 162 units, were built by Henderson Land Development Co., the newspaper said.
    
    New World Development gained 50 cents, or 2.3 percent, to HK$22.
    
    Henderson Land, the city's fourth-biggest developer was suspended from trading today. Henderson Investment Ltd. and Hong Kong & China Gas Co., units of Henderson Land, were also halted pending an announcement on ``a possible price-sensitive transaction,'' according to a statement to the exchange today.
    
    The following stocks rose or fell. Stock symbols are in brackets after company names:
    
    Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. (1038 HK) rose HK$1.50, or 5.1 percent, to HK$30.70. The roads and power company owned by billionaire Li Ka-shing said it signed an agreement for a 6.8 billion yuan ($906 million) expansion of an electricity plant in southern China that will add 2,000 megawatts in additional capacity.
    
    China Renji Medical Group Ltd. (648 HK) surged 2.7 cents, or 17 percent, to 19 Hong Kong cents after a five-day suspension. The operator of medical centers in China specializing in diagnostics and treatments of tumors said a unit agreed to acquire 51 percent of Medical Equipment for $74.1 million yuan in cash and shares.
    
    Samson Holding Ltd. (531 HK) climbed 39 cents, or 18 percent, to HK$2.60. The Hong Kong-based furniture maker said it, along with its directors, acquired a 14.9 percent stake in Furniture Brands International Inc. and approached the company for a possible combination.
    
    Fu Ji Food & Catering Services Holdings Ltd. (1175 HK), one of Shanghai's largest sellers of cooked meals, rose HK$1.05, or 4.4 percent, to HK$24.95. The company said it will buy a 60 percent stake in a restaurant chain for as much as HK$800 million ($103 million).
    
    Yue Yuen Industrial Ltd. (551 HK), the biggest maker of athletic shoes for Nike Inc. and Adidas AG, jumped HK$1.90, or 8.2 percent, to HK$25.15. The stock posted the biggest gain since Jan. 15 after Yue Yuen said after the market closed on Sept. 28 that nine-month profit rose 6 percent on higher sales.
    
    To contact the reporter on
    
12. [verwijderd] 4 oktober 2007 19:42

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    Azië aan vooravond van enorme rally
    
    Vorige week was ik in Londen bij de presentatie van vermogensbeheerder Henderson Global Investors over hun vooruitzichten. Deze organisatie is opgericht in 1934 en is een toonaangevende vermogensbeheerder in Europa.
    
    Risico’s nemen toe
    
    De voornaamste boodschap is dat er nog geen bewijs is voor een aanstaande malaise op de aandelenbeurzen. Aandelen zijn nog steeds goedkoop en hebben een bodem gelegd.
    
    
    
    www.volghetgeld.nl/artikel/752/Azi%EB...
13. [verwijderd] 4 oktober 2007 19:57

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    Hang Seng naar 40.000
    Artist naar 40.000 postings.
    Ben benieuwd wie eerder is?
    Post zoveel u wilt hoor en
    koop zoveel u wilt.
    De postings lopen nu zo´n beetje 15.974 achter.
    Succes
    
    MVG
    
    Rigsby
14. [verwijderd] 5 oktober 2007 08:31

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    toch fijn zo'n HS. Stel je voor dat je short zat. D
15. [verwijderd] 11 oktober 2007 17:27

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    quote:

    Goodnight Vienna schreef:

    [quote=The Artist]
    zij die jarenlang niet in China geloofden, zijn nu verplicht tegen elke prijs in te stappen
    
    The Artist
    
    koers vandaag 26,495
    [/quote]
    
    Tafkapje,je lijkt af en toe wel een anabole analist.
    Have a break...
    
    MVG
    
    Rigsby
    

    tinyurl.com/2wt9zn
    
    No time for a break, hopelijk ff bij de 30.000, zelf verwacht ik dat ook.
16. [verwijderd] 17 oktober 2007 18:17

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    quote:

    The Artist schreef:

    
    De rally naar 40.000 is puur gebaseerd op euforie en angst er niet in te zitten.
    
    
    

    read my lips.
17. [verwijderd] 17 oktober 2007 20:02

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    Hier ik heb er een EW van gemaakt vanaf 1986 maar vanaf 2003 is het pakketje de draad helemaal kwijt... Sterker nog een ultra lange termijn waarde van 148.000 wordt gegeven... toch leuk...
    
    de blauwe stip is het begin van de nieuwe trend en deze zou je eigenlijk binnen kanaaltje kunnen trekken tot aan vorigjaar, toen kregen ze gekke koeie ziekte...

    Bijlage:
18. [verwijderd] 18 oktober 2007 13:30

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    ik las op Bloomberg dat de Chinese overheid short-selling niet toestaat. Dit itt tot de Hang Seng.
    
    Dat zou betekenen dat de Shanghai/Shenzen beurzen wellicht wat minder volatiel naar beneden bewegen.
    
    Of is mijn redenering onjuist?
19. [verwijderd] 18 oktober 2007 16:00

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    Geen flauw idee nooit zo er overna gedacht...
    
20. dokter Lee 18 oktober 2007 21:59

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    quote:

    erwin1 schreef:

    ik las op Bloomberg dat de Chinese overheid short-selling niet toestaat. Dit itt tot de Hang Seng.
    
    Dat zou betekenen dat de Shanghai/Shenzen beurzen wellicht wat minder volatiel naar beneden bewegen.
    
    Of is mijn redenering onjuist?
    

    Beste Erwin1,
    
    Weet u nog wat er op 27 februari dit jaar in China gebeurde? De beurzen in Shanghai en Shenzhen zijn juist nog volatieler dan wij in het Westen gewend zijn. Hoewel de beurzen zich momenteel nog bewegen binnen een bandbreedte van +2% en -2% per dag, zullen de uitschieters nog groter worden als Beijing onaangekondigd maatregelen zal nemen om de inflatie in toom te houden. Als een bekende belegger z'n aandelen verkoopt, hollen anderen er snel achteraan wat als een sneeuwbal-effect werkt op de beurs. De volatiliteit voor individuele aandelen genoteerd in China zijn overigens nog veel groter. Iedere dag (zelfs als de Index in het groen staat) dalen aandelen met de maximale 10% zonder enig belangrijk nieuws.
    
    Groeten,
    
    Dokter Lee
21. handyman6 18 oktober 2007 23:31

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    quote:

    dokter Lee schreef:

    [quote=erwin1]
    ik las op Bloomberg dat de Chinese overheid short-selling niet toestaat. Dit itt tot de Hang Seng.
    
    Dat zou betekenen dat de Shanghai/Shenzen beurzen wellicht wat minder volatiel naar beneden bewegen.
    
    Of is mijn redenering onjuist?
    [/quote]
    
    Beste Erwin1,
    
    Weet u nog wat er op 27 februari dit jaar in China gebeurde? De beurzen in Shanghai en Shenzhen zijn juist nog volatieler dan wij in het Westen gewend zijn. Hoewel de beurzen zich momenteel nog bewegen binnen een bandbreedte van +2% en -2% per dag, zullen de uitschieters nog groter worden als Beijing onaangekondigd maatregelen zal nemen om de inflatie in toom te houden. Als een bekende belegger z'n aandelen verkoopt, hollen anderen er snel achteraan wat als een sneeuwbal-effect werkt op de beurs. De volatiliteit voor individuele aandelen genoteerd in China zijn overigens nog veel groter. Iedere dag (zelfs als de Index in het groen staat) dalen aandelen met de maximale 10% zonder enig belangrijk nieuws.
    
    Groeten,
    
    Dokter Lee
    

    Was Warren Buffet niet bezig te verkopen in china?mvgH6