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FWM. Stap in nu het nog kan...;-)

1. [verwijderd] 21 november 2014 08:56

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   Copy Paste Seeking Alpha.
   
   Summary
   
   Fairway stock appears to be mired in the $2s due to poor results and tax loss selling.
   The new management team is impressive and has a plan.
   The stock is a call option on solvency.
   
   Fairway (NASDAQ:FWM) hosted an analyst day yesterday that was attended by about 50-60 sell and buysiders at its flagship West-side store. It was the first meeting with the new CEO, Jack Murphy, and CMO, Dorothy Carlow. The two had turned around Earth Fare based in North Carolina. Jack had run and sold the predecessor company to Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFM) among other successful deals in the food retail space. They are both the real deal.
   
   A lot of bad news is baked into the stock, which trades as if it is going to file bankruptcy any minute. The reality is that the Company has $50 million of liquidity and a lot of the capital spending is store opening related, which can be deferred or cancelled.
   
   On the operations front, Fairway lost its way by chasing Whole Foods and expanding oddly too rapidly but also not rapidly enough. It expanded from two stores to 15 stores and into the suburbs where there was more competition without a real business model other than to chase the success of Whole Foods. Jack and Dorothy get this issue and are quickly fixing the model in the existing stores through a combination of pricing, merchandising assortment and store planning. The Company did not expand rapidly enough in the sense that they have the distribution for a 30 store footprint and only currently have 15 boxes. As discussed in earlier articles, a 5 box expansion to 20 boxes at a constant gross margin (low 30s) could easily take EBITDA to $100mm+. The plan is to get the existing boxes optimized and then get to 30 stores. Fairway may be sold in the interim, but this plan makes sense and seems achievable to modest in its goals, though from $2 mere survival is an achievement.
   
   There was a lot of good operational news from the meeting. The Company has the systems in place to give management the real time data they need to compete, not a given in most turnarounds. The Company is simply not using the data it has which is better than not having the data at all. The strategy of exploiting the quality and price of the food. (Bloomberg BI had Fairway as the lowest priced "gourmet" grocer in NYC). In Dorothy's view too many retailers are chasing Whole Foods and organic is overdone as a concept and quality of food is what matters and there Fairway blows Whole Foods away. Other low hanging fruit are in areas of ad spending. They want to take dollars away from traditional media and invest more in apps and in store events to take share back from Whole Foods and others. What really impressed me was the depth of the team. The COO and CFO were also impressive which you don't usually see at this small a company.
   
   I still think that absent a sale, Fairway can get to $100mm in EBITDA and that it can trade at 8-10x that number. In that scenario, value is in a range of $13-18 per share which buys a nice basket of groceries.
2. [verwijderd] 24 januari 2015 09:03

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   61,2% + rendement sinds November 2014. I rest my case
3. ErikB 24 januari 2015 15:26

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   En blijft het daarbij? :)
4. [verwijderd] 26 januari 2015 08:26

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   Haha.. Maar even war winst veilig gesteld afgelopen vrijdag.. Zal wel woelig weekje worden. Cijfers 05 02. Verwacht koers tegen de $5.
5. [verwijderd] 4 februari 2015 08:57

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   Donderdag as nabeurs cijfers.. Iemand nog wat winst gepakt/gemaakt..?
6. [verwijderd] 6 februari 2015 07:09

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   NEW YORK (AP) _ Fairway Group Holdings Corp. (FWM) on Thursday reported a loss of $11.1 million in its fiscal third quarter.
   
   The New York-based company said it had a loss of 25 cents per share. Losses, adjusted for stock option expense and severance costs, came to 4 cents per share.
   
   The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 19 cents per share.
   
   The grocer posted revenue of $206.2 million in the period.
   
   Fairway shares have increased 61 percent since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Thursday, shares hit $5.06, a drop of 55 percent in the last 12 months.
   
   _____
   
   This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research.