Trader Bob schreef op 22 februari 2021 09:24:
Goldman Sees Brent Oil at $75 as Supply Response Trails Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices will rally sooner and higher than
previously thought as the global energy demand recovery outpaces
the supply response from the OPEC+ alliance, shale and Iran,
according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Consumption will get back to pre-virus levels by late July,
while output from major producers is likely to remain “highly
inelastic” to the rising prices, the bank said in a note.
Goldman raised its Brent forecasts by $10 a barrel, to $70 next
quarter and $75 in the following three months.
“This faster re-balancing during what was expected to be
the dark days of winter will be followed by a widening deficit
this spring as the ramp-up in OPEC+ production lags our above-
consensus demand recovery forecast,” bank analysts including
Damien Courvalin said in the note.
Oil’s rebound to levels last seen before Covid-19 wreaked
havoc on the global economy has been driven by Saudi Arabia’s
unilateral output cuts together with the improving demand
outlook. The rally has also been supported by investors using
crude to position for a reflationary environment, Goldman said.
Brent oil traded above $63 a barrel on Monday and is up around
22% this year.
Supply will keep lagging behind demand for several reasons,
the bank said:
* OPEC+ will fall behind the market rebalancing, especially as
the pace of global drawdowns of stockpiles has accelerated
* There are no signs of more activity from most non-OPEC+
producers outside of North America, creating a risk supply will
fall 900,000 barrels a day short of the bank’s estimates in the
coming year
* The U.S. earnings season confirms that big explorers and
producers, the key drivers of U.S. shale output, remain focused
on returning cash to shareholders
* Indications from the U.S. government suggest Iranian output
likely won’t increase in the short term