buy&hold-style schreef op 29 januari 2020 18:41:
Positief artikel op seeking alpha
seekingalpha.com/article/4319830-abn-...Conclusions
I've been consistently negative on ABN since I first wrote on the stock last May, but with the share price now down over 20% since then, and down 45% from its peak in early 2018, I think it's time to call the bottom.
P/TNAV has dropped to a very low level of just 0.7x, yet the company's operating performance remains respectable, with ROTE expected to be 9-10% this year and next. The share price drop has also far outpaced the level of cuts we've seen to Street estimates.
If and when ABN turns the corner, I think the share price could rally hard in a short space of time. This is the perfect scenario for deep OTM calls. They are cheap, they provide leverage, and they limit the downside in the event things just keep getting worse.
September calls with an €18 strike cost just €0.20 and would deliver 3x initial outlay if the stock gets back to its pre-money laundering level from 4 months ago. If the stock gets to my fundamental target price of €23, the return would be an eye-watering 25x.